Hungary: changing development model – changing relations with the EU

Hungary is a country where the clearest contrast can be observed in recent years in comparison with the previous decade in terms of economic policy, international economic and political relations, and managing EU affairs. The strong support behind and the overwhelming parliamentary majority of FIDESZ-KDNP coupled with marginalized opposition forces since 2010 made it possible to put into place a completely new program relative to previous years. Using its strategic orientation, rhetoric, and the changes in the electoral system, in April 2014, the government again won an overwhelming (two thirds) majority of the parliamentary seats in the general elections. It seemed that the master plan of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was finally achieved. He had positioned his party in the middle of the political arena and himself as the defender of democracy against the far-right party Jobbik. After winning the parliamentary elections it was anticipated that the government would not be facing any major challenges in the coming years. However unexpected it was though, a growing sense of dissatisfaction with the government had soon started to grow. This change in attitude was fundamentally caused by three events: political mistakes committed by the ruling parties on the domestic scene; increasing international pressure on the government prompted by its authoritarian politics; and the emergence of sharp dividing lines within the governing elite. Given these significant and unexpected changes since the 2014 elections, the political context for the next years has become much more obscure than anyone could have anticipated. The political fight between FIDESZ-KDNP (governing parties), JOBBIK (the far-right) and the Left (traditional and “new” left) will be extremely fierce in the next 2-3 years, which without a doubt will severely disturb the relations between Hungary and the European Union. (Click on the picture)

(A slightly different version of this analysis has been publiched in: Eleanor E. Zeff and Ellen B. Pirro (eds) The European Union and the Member States, Third Edition. Lynne - Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Colorado, USA, ISBN: 978-1-62637-256-6 pb, pp. 279-298. August 2015. https://www.rienner.com/uploads/55b14cb0e6953.pdf)

The future of the Eastern Partnership: Strategic changes or continued drifting

In 2009 the EU launched the Eastern Partnership as the Eastern Dimension of the European Neighbourhood Policy. Russia also initiated an ambitious integration project (after several integrational attempts from the mid-nineties) with the final objective of creating the Eurasian Economic Union. These two initiatives seemed to be increasingly competing with each other to attract post-communist countries of the East prior to the Vilnius Summit in 2013. Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy at that time, said that the Vilnius summit would “open a new chapter” in the EU’s relations with its Eastern partners.  She was right, but most probably she was anticipating a different kind of change. Independently of the causes behind the current difficulties in the Eastern Partnership region, the EU is facing a fundamental dilemma. If at this point it wants to make an impact and at the same time preserve its attractiveness for third countries, strategic decisions have to be taken.

The analysis is available at the web page of Österreichische Gesellschaft für Europapolitik:

http://www.oegfe.at/cms/uploads/media/OEGfE_Policy_Brief-2015.17_01.pdf

Report on the ISA Annual Convention and EUSA Biennial Conference – from a Central European Perspective

The annual Convention of International Studies Association on Global IR and Regional Worlds: A New Agenda for International Studies (18-21 February – New Orleans) and the European Union Studies Association Fourteenth Biennial Conference (5-7 March, Boston) were held in the past few weeks. The ISA annual conventions are among the most important events of scholarly research on global IR (at least in the Western hemisphere) dealing with the most important theoretical and practical issues of contemporary international relations and sharing recent research results. The EUSA concentrates on a specific region, i.e. the European Union. The EU’s internal dynamics and challenges, its role in international power relations including its ability to influence developments in its neighborhood and to cope with the challenges of a changing global economic and political framework are discussed in detail at EUSA events. CentralEuropeNow attended both conferences and was very much interested in finding out how the current issues of the Central and Eastern European region would be discussed at such major events. (Click on the picture.) 



The Madman Theory

Three weeks after the Budapest visit of the Russian president Vladimir Putin, there is a whole range of political opinions circulating in Hungarian media on the actual purpose and meaning of the meeting. The majority of such considerations focus on the question of why the talks were so important for the Hungarian Prime Minister and the Russian leader. The Madman Theory offers a credible explanation for those who are not familiar with the Eastern European realities. (Click on the cover.)

Scholars, Politicians and Oligarchs

The 2015/2 issue of CentralEuropeNow Commentary has just been released. This short paper collects opinions about Viktor Orban’s regime, 2011-2015 (Click on the picture)

The real threat to Europe

CentralEuropeNow has published the first issue of its new series "Commentary".

The central and east European region is in flux, with some countries having weathered some turbulent economic storms and others having to face considerable challenges. New security uncertainties have also arisen, prompting many observers and policy makers to wonder about the region's future.

With this in mind we launch this series to analyse current challenges and developments. (Click on the picture)





 

Sustainable Unsustainability – The Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina

From among the Western Balkan countries Bosnia and Herzegovina has been experiencing the most unfavourable economic and political developments. Analyses of the economic developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina can be prepared from two profoundly different perspectives. The first variant of economic research concentrates on the macroeconomic trends, external and internal balances (GDP growth, fiscal deficit, public debt etc.) and attempts to identify the underlying long-term processes and the most likely directions they may take in the future based on economic calculations and models. Economic policy recommendations and proposals are formulated in the context of economic growth and stability against this background. The other type of analysis however would rather concentrate on the political economic framework and place emphasis on the particular political, constitutional and economic circumstances under which the country operates and which render normal economic decision making difficult or even impossible. A political economic analysis like the latter one must examine the international political and security policy interests and the domestic political relations in a multidisciplinary and complex way. The country cannot be properly described using the terms of a standard economic and political framework. (Click on the picture!)